Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x014b…c795 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-6%) realized −$9 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$109
other 15% +$10
world 4% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 25% -21.0%
≤30d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 25% -21.0%
≤90d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 25% -21.0%
all 24 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 25% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 25% -21.0%
10% -30.4% 25% -28.6%
15% -37.1% 25% -35.5%
20% -43.3% 25% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$25 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $29 −$29 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $22 −$22 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $49 +$72 +146%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $39 +$29 +73%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $28 −$27 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 −$12 -31%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $39 −$39 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $54 +$59 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 +$30 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $23 −$22 -98%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $24 −$23 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$44 +146%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $26 −$8 -32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$92 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $40 5h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $22 6h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $49 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $39 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $28 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $28 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $28 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $39 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $40 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $34 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $54 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $24 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $25 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $23 5d
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 5d
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $24 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $30 5d
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $36 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 37 history records