Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x014c…f5b6 sports 658 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,724 (-1%) realized −$1,308 · open −$1,416
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%309W / 343L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$310est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,197
7 days+$2,197
14 days+$569
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$3,565
other 16% −$1,423
politics 0% +$572
crypto 0% +$413
world 0% −$249
finance 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +106.6% +86.9% 100% 100% +87.1%
≤30d 44 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 41% -11.8%
≤90d 54 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% -16.9%
all 652 +11.0% +0.5% 47% 47% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 47% -10.4%
10% -9.1% 47% -18.9%
15% -17.9% 47% -26.8%
20% -26.0% 46% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$632) neutral
Persistence
early +42% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$550 vs −$504 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$644
Realized−$1,308
Unrealized−$1,416
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses309 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions4
Markets (closed)652 / 658
History coverage285d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $400 $357 −$43 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 48¢ $240 $285 +$45 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 37¢ 0¢ $842 $1 −$841 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $578 $1 −$577 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 +$413 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $305 +$355 +116%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $476 +$627 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $109 +$74 +67%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $305 +$463 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $254 +$266 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $188 −$185 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $393 −$386 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $407 −$401 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $262 +$343 +131%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $143 +$314 +220%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $351 −$344 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $272 −$268 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $124 −$54 -44%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $205 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $394 −$388 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $503 −$492 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $285 −$279 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $673 +$404 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $509 +$760 +149%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $786 −$770 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $608 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $760 +$555 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $434 −$426 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $407 +$953 +234%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $203 +$237 +116%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $291 −$286 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $490 −$481 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $408 −$400 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $305 −$300 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1,243 −$1,224 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $532 +$1,546 +291%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $711 +$809 +114%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 09 $283 −$278 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $425 −$418 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $477 +$940 +197%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 09 $254 +$225 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $143 −$141 -99%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 08 $153 −$150 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 08 $282 +$268 +95%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $211 −$207 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $877 −$867 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 23 $51 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Apr 23 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Apr 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-3.5) Apr 23 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 34¢ $245 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $244 50m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $88 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $770 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,021 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $660 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $305 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $590 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL FURIA 99¢ $1,103 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $183 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY FURIA 42¢ $476 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $768 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $109 14h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY FURIA 39¢ $305 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 32¢ $510 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $520 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 48¢ $254 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $188 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $393 8d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $407 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $605 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $262 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 98¢ $457 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $351 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 30¢ $143 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 50¢ $272 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $70 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $202 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.92 · official $897.53 · 1463 history records