Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x014e…23fb crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$63
other 20% −$35
sports 5% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.2% -23.2% 40% 10% -6.7%
≤30d 10 -15.2% -23.2% 40% 10% -6.7%
≤90d 10 -15.2% -23.2% 40% 10% -6.7%
all 13 -17.5% -25.3% 38% 15% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 15% -11.2%
10% -32.5% 15% -19.7%
15% -39.0% 15% -27.5%
20% -45.0% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$33 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage152d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $216 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $278 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $478 −$37 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $281 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$12 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $180 +$117 +65%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $110 +$60 +54%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Jan 26 $26 −$17 -68%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jan 26 $220 −$135 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records