Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x0153…89d6 crypto 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+0%) realized +$125 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%292W / 43L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$39
14 days−$66
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 24% +$180
crypto 23% −$69
other 18% +$73
world 15% −$135
tech 11% +$16
culture 5% −$9
sports 2% +$10
economics 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 116 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 320 -0.7% -10.2% 88% 1% -9.3%
all 335 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,530
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses292 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)335 / 344
History coverage166d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? No 98¢ 97¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 99¢ 98¢ $186 $184 −$1 (-1%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $179 $177 −$2 (-1%)
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? No 99¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $300 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $118 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $186 +$4 +2%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 22 20 Jun 26 $116 +$3 +3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $400? Jun 26 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 26 $200 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 25? Jun 25 $300 +$5 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 24? Jun 24 $280 +$5 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? Jun 24 $600 +$12 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 20 $182 +$4 +2%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $243 +$4 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $400 +$4 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $209 +$1 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $200 +$1 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $265 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $277 −$152 -55%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 15 $168 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $93 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $161 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $200 −$47 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $111 −$21 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $300 +$4 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $83 +$2 +3%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $229 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $111 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 10? Jun 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$46 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? BUY No 97¢ $155 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 99¢ $186 15h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 16h
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $127 16h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $96 16h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY No 99¢ $89 29h
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY No 98¢ $200 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 3d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 99¢ $200 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 98¢ $93 3d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $400? BUY No 99¢ $200 3d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $118 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 98¢ $186 3d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 97¢ $116 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $300 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $600 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $280 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $182 11d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $243 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 96¢ $200 11d
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $88 12d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $192 12d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $300 13d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $104 13d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 97¢ $200 13d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 99¢ $400 13d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $138 13d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $125 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $209 13d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $152 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,529.82 · official $1,530.26 (match) · 808 history records