Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x0154…30f7 sports 1279 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,397 (-2%) realized −$1,432 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%648W / 626L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$225
14 days−$225
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,111
other 5% +$317
crypto 1% −$33
politics 0% −$17
world 0% −$16
economics 0% −$10
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -56.0% -60.2% 33% 22% -11.5%
≤30d 108 -56.0% -60.2% 33% 22% -11.5%
≤90d 1274 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 46% -10.9%
all 1274 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 46% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 37% -19.4%
15% -31.0% 28% -27.2%
20% -37.8% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized−$1,432
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses648 / 626
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1274 / 1279
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 100¢ $250 $301 +$51 (+20%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $150 $192 +$42 (+28%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 54¢ $159 $105 −$54 (-34%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $246 +$5 +2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $298 +$12 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $175 +$72 +41%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $406 +$65 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $14 +$13 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 24 $321 +$38 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $170 +$59 +35%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $300 +$14 +5%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $603 −$600 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $151 +$20 +13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $250 +$13 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $435 +$7 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $143 +$69 +48%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $858 +$35 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $778 +$80 +10%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $266 −$12 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $38 +$16 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $17 −$10 -57%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $356 +$43 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $504 +$210 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $201 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$23 +226%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $478 +$11 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $596 +$64 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $55 −$10 -18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$15 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $456 −$5 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $421 +$32 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $396 +$28 +7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $326 +$69 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $160 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $151 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $251 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $252 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $310 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $246 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $247 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $298 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $175 4h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 100¢ $471 4h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 86¢ $281 5h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 79¢ $4 5h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 88¢ $100 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $359 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Katie Volynets 89¢ $321 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Aziz Dougaz 19¢ $5 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 5¢ $3 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 51¢ $14 6h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 74¢ $20 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Julia Riera 66¢ $15 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Alina Korneeva 75¢ $151 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Alina Korneeva 65¢ $19 8h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $603 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $435 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $250 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $151 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Mai Hontama 74¢ $25 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 80¢ $50 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.04 · official $625.04 (match) · 3500 history records