Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x0156…c273 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$270 (+4%) realized +$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate94%130W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day74.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 139 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 33% -7.1%
≤90d 139 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 33% -7.1%
all 139 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 33% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 33% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 4% -15.9%
15% -24.1% 1% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$50 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses130 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day74.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 270 history records