Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0156…a951 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized −$208 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%157W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day262.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days−$208
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$167
other 5% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 16% -14.4%
≤30d 231 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 16% -14.4%
≤90d 231 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 16% -14.4%
all 231 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 16% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover262.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 16% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 10% -22.6%
15% -29.2% 8% -30.1%
20% -36.1% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses157 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day262.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 55¢ 81¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+48%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 0¢ 94¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 44¢ 18¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$43 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$8 -54%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$12 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.15 · official $19.99 · 1117 history records