Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0158…4bcf crypto 584 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (592 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%179W / 405L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day591.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$432
other 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (592 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -8.5% -17.2% 31% 31% -12.3%
≤30d 584 -8.5% -17.2% 31% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 584 -8.5% -17.2% 31% 31% -12.3%
all 584 -8.5% -17.2% 31% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover591.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 30% -20.7%
15% -32.4% 30% -28.3%
20% -39.0% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses179 / 405
Open positions0
Markets (closed)584 / 584
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day591.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 584 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$36 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$35 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$42 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$41 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$45 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$44 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$132 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$40 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $109 −$96 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$132 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$94 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$61 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$39 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$20 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$45 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$11 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$69 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$41 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$70 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$60 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$138 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$59 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $46 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $13 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.07 (match) · 1881 history records