Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0159…db47 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,437 (+19%) realized +$5,292 · open +$2,145
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 110L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$873est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11,011
14 days+$24,835
30 days+$20,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$13,829
crypto 11% −$4,200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +276.0% +240.2% 100% 100% +240.2%
≤30d 29 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 34% +111.6%
≤90d 135 -54.8% -59.1% 19% 19% +12.2%
all 135 -54.8% -59.1% 19% 19% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.1% 19% +12.2%
10% -63.0% 19% +1.5%
15% -66.6% 18% -8.3%
20% -69.9% 18% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -85% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,169 vs −$198 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$7,238
Realized+$5,292
Unrealized+$2,145
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$873
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage64d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 100¢ $3,051 $7,227 +$4,177 (+137%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 10¢ $2,042 $10 −$2,032 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,989 +$11,011 +276%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,444 +$15,350 +628%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2,056 +$594 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,811 −$1,800 -99%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $239 −$237 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $210 −$210 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4,367 −$4,200 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $7 −$6 -97%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 27 $3 +$3 +117%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $143 −$48 -34%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 25 $43 +$47 +108%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q May 24 $129 −$129 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $79 +$99 +124%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $129 −$127 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 24 $93 −$91 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $129 −$127 -98%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winne May 24 $51 +$54 +104%
Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score First May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winne May 24 $81 +$82 +101%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner May 24 $53 +$66 +124%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $38 −$36 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 24 $154 +$207 +134%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 23 $124 −$124 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $38 −$36 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 4 Winner May 20 $199 +$179 +90%
Valorant: Team Solid vs PEEK (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A May 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu May 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Tezcat Gaming (BO3) - VCL Latin America North May 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Valorant: TBK Esports vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A May 19 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one - Game 2 Winner May 19 $51 +$60 +117%
Valorant: MIBR Academy vs FURIA Academy (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A May 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner May 19 $75 +$78 +104%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Valorant: MIR vs WIP Esports - Map 2 Winner May 19 $45 +$50 +112%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner May 19 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner May 19 $52 +$54 +105%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner May 19 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner May 19 $78 +$82 +105%
Valorant: FOKUS vs REBORN - Map 1 Winner May 19 $82 +$94 +114%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner May 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs REBORN (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 19 $27 −$26 -98%
LoL: SU Esports vs BoostGate Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 19 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $3,104 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $675 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $1,027 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons $34 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $45 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $27 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $18 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $18 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $4 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $0 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $41 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $18 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $813 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $54 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $71 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $234 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $982 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $572 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,237.51 · official $7,237.51 (match) · 1233 history records