Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x015a…99d0 crypto 223 markets active 1d ago coverage 386d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,886 (-5%) realized −$2,885 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%84W / 137L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 386d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$5,101
sports 3% −$433
other 1% +$100
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 36% -25.3%
≤30d 57 -2.4% -11.7% 37% 37% -18.3%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 39% -16.1%
all 221 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 35% -13.2%
10% -23.3% 32% -21.5%
15% -30.7% 29% -29.1%
20% -37.5% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$122 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$2,885
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses84 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage386d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $50 +$17 +33%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $25 +$25 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 +$42 +325%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$20 +79%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $26 +$50 +197%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $25 $0 -2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$33 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$57 +442%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$76 +596%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $9 +$13 +146%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $51 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $51 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $51 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $51 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 36¢ $51 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $51 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $25 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $25 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $26 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 33¢ $26 2d
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 50¢ $25 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $25 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $25 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $25 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $25 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $25 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $13 2d
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Noir Esports 50¢ $25 3d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 39¢ $25 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $13 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 43¢ $25 3d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 54¢ $25 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.34 · official $49.34 (match) · 727 history records