Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x015b…ce56 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+6%) realized +$280 · open −$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$59
sports 14% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+83.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +102.6% +83.3% 25% 25% -16.4%
≤30d 12 +102.6% +83.3% 25% 25% -16.4%
≤90d 12 +102.6% +83.3% 25% 25% -16.4%
all 12 +102.6% +83.3% 25% 25% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +83.3% 25% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here +65.8% 25% -24.4%
15% +49.8% 25% -31.7%
20% +35.1% 25% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +305% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$63 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 24¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $78 $57 −$21 (-27%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 6¢ $46 $17 −$29 (-63%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 8¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 +$530 +2575%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 +$60 +59%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $152 +$35 +23%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $202 −$197 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 5m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 10m
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 13m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 23m
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $26 31m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $27 35m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 36m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 39m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 83¢ $551 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 67¢ $162 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 52¢ $182 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $202 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 27h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.59 · official $167.54 · 27 history records