Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x015c…9fe3 crypto 695 markets active 6h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate77%526W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$40
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$31
sports 2% −$10
other 0% −$5
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -10.5% -19.0% 69% 45% -12.2%
≤30d 517 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 517 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 42% -10.5%
all 683 -4.4% -13.5% 77% 35% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 35% -10.8%
10% -21.8% 23% -19.4%
15% -29.3% 15% -27.2%
20% -36.3% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses526 / 157
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)683 / 695
History coverage215d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) PortlandFire 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 64¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY PortlandFire 54¢ $1 5h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $1 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $2 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $1 18h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 18h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $1 18h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $1 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $2 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $1 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $2 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 39¢ $2 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $2 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 81¢ $2 18h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 84¢ $1 41h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 41h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 41h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 89¢ $1 41h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 78¢ $1 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.21 · official $10.31 (match) · 1390 history records