Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0162…46d2 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+7%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$32
other 17% +$13
sports 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 56% 30% -13.8%
≤30d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 56% 30% -13.8%
≤90d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 56% 30% -13.8%
all 27 +16.7% +5.6% 56% 30% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 30% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.5% 19% -22.1%
15% -13.7% 15% -29.6%
20% -22.2% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)27 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 43¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$40 +756%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +312%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 2¢ $1 8m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 10m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $5 11m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $5 12m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.72 · official $63.72 (match) · 108 history records