Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x0162…f21c crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$411 (-18%) realized −$411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$250
14 days−$498
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$373
sports 29% −$35
other 19% −$89
weather 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 29% -32.3%
≤30d 94 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 34% -33.8%
≤90d 94 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 34% -33.8%
all 94 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 34% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 34% -33.8%
10% -19.8% 29% -40.1%
15% -27.6% 27% -45.9%
20% -34.7% 24% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 58
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage14d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $59 +$30 +51%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $33 +$25 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 +$24 +180%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +238%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$11 +146%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$17 +170%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$28 -61%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 +$9 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $59 −$57 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $110 −$109 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $42 59m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 58¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 68¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $42 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $44 5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $59 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $33 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $89 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.59 · official $89.19 · 229 history records