Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0164…9ed6 other 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,926 (+15%) realized +$11,076 · open +$4,850
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 49L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$634per market
Trades / day79.8pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$76,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1,331
other 44% +$2,546
sports 10% +$156
crypto 1% −$303
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -22.4% -29.8% 36% 18% +17.2%
≤30d 81 -18.6% -26.4% 51% 16% +2.3%
≤90d 94 -17.5% -25.4% 48% 16% -16.9%
all 94 -17.5% -25.4% 48% 16% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 16% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 12% -24.9%
15% -39.0% 10% -32.1%
20% -45.0% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$236 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$76,715
Realized+$11,076
Unrealized+$4,850
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions92
Markets (closed)94 / 172
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$634
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $8,218 $8,539 +$321 (+4%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 80¢ 89¢ $5,581 $6,230 +$649 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,596 $5,812 +$215 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 65¢ 70¢ $5,200 $5,600 +$400 (+8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $4,403 $4,953 +$550 (+12%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $4,800 $4,923 +$123 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $4,430 $4,575 +$145 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $3,289 $3,375 +$86 (+3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $2,149 $2,170 +$21 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $1,481 $1,810 +$329 (+22%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,791 $1,802 +$10 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 39¢ 88¢ $782 $1,750 +$968 (+124%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 13¢ $1,576 $1,740 +$165 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,561 $1,667 +$106 (+7%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,499 $1,545 +$47 (+3%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,432 $1,487 +$55 (+4%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $1,398 $1,468 +$70 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $1,055 $1,030 −$25 (-2%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $979 $993 +$14 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $886 $963 +$78 (+9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $907 $927 +$20 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 87¢ $781 $870 +$89 (+11%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $780 $788 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,360 $765 −$595 (-44%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 86¢ 79¢ $692 $632 −$60 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,050 −$57 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $34 −$25 -74%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $506 +$812 +160%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2,300 +$140 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $221 −$195 -89%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $670 +$104 +16%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,178 +$35 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $180 +$189 +105%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $47 −$38 -81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $225 +$297 +132%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $190 +$59 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,435 +$240 +17%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $3,160 −$72 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $228 −$52 -23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $180 −$101 -56%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $249 +$5 +2%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $955 +$3,505 +367%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $970 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $155 +$5 +3%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Jun 09 $159 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $288 +$8 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $245 −$172 -70%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $115 +$2 +2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $195 +$3 +2%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $285 −$211 -74%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $20 6m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $18 13m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $16 16m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 30¢ $15 17m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $14 19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 28¢ $11 19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 28¢ $3 19m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $462 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $13 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $12 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 20¢ $90 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 20¢ $10 36m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $40 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $135 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $14 49m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 54m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 56m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 57m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 18¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $117 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,714.76 · official $76,715.06 (match) · 3500 history records