Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0167…225c sports 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+7%) realized +$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%162W / 128L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$11
other 17% +$44
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 61% +0.0%
≤30d 69 +10.6% +0.1% 58% 58% -1.5%
≤90d 282 +7.4% -2.9% 56% 55% -3.2%
all 290 +6.6% -3.5% 56% 55% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 55% -4.3%
10% -12.7% 55% -13.5%
15% -21.2% 51% -21.8%
20% -28.9% 47% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses162 / 128
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)290 / 294
History coverage105d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 73¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +180%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $4 +$6 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 +$7 +93%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 +$6 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $4 +$6 +140%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $3 +$1 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $3 +$1 +55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $2 1m
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 57¢ $3 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 54¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $2 6h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 73¢ $4 6h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $2 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $2 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $2 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $2 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 46h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $3 47h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $2 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 4d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $3 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 61¢ $3 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.05 · official $10.05 (match) · 681 history records