Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x016c…df21 sports 559 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,115 (-6%) realized −$3,115 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%257W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$893est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$45
14 days−$542
30 days−$1,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$3,030
other 5% +$683
crypto 4% −$132
politics 2% −$215
world 2% −$763
weather 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 38% -8.3%
≤30d 186 -2.6% -11.9% 49% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 554 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 41% -16.0%
all 554 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 41% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 35% -24.0%
15% -31.8% 28% -31.3%
20% -38.5% 19% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$56 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses257 / 297
Est. fees paid−$893
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 559
History coverage82d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $72 +$5 +7%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$16 -85%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 +$77 +75%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $176 +$162 +92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$23 +64%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $29 +$7 +23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $19 +$10 +53%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 −$2 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 −$82 -82%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $31 +$41 +132%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $27 +$23 +82%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$17 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $122 +$19 +16%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $150 +$73 +49%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $175 +$82 +47%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$26 +54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $186 +$13 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $173 +$14 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $73 +$20 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$22 -22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $163 +$12 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$62 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $101 −$58 -57%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 19 $52 +$35 +68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Jun 19 $26 +$44 +172%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$8 -23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on Jun 18 $63 −$30 -47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $123 −$10 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $79 +$2 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Por Jun 17 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jun 17 $47 +$55 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 +$22 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 75¢ $77 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 69¢ $72 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $73 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $100 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $99 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $14 10h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 39¢ $204 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 56¢ $102 33h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 51¢ $176 39h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 20¢ $59 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $29 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $98 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $98 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $18 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $1 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $20 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $42 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2350 history records