Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

01 0x016d…4b33 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$86 (-19%) realized −$64 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$114per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-35.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-47.2%	-52.2%	0%	0%	-52.2%
≤30d	2	-28.2%	-35.0%	0%	0%	-37.7%
≤90d	2	-28.2%	-35.0%	0%	0%	-37.7%
all	2	-28.2%	-35.0%	0%	0%	-37.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.0%	0%	-37.7%
10%	-41.2%	0%	-43.7%
15%	-46.9%	0%	-49.1%
20%	-52.1%	0%	-54.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$36 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized−$64

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage17d

Avg bet$114

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$150	$128	−$22 (-15%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	Over	91¢	90¢	$71	$71	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$135	−$63	-47%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 14	$98	−$9	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	91¢	$71	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$71	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$154	12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$89	15d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL Yes	34¢	$89	15d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	36¢	$98	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.41 · official $198.41 (match) · 23 history records