trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 21 | -37.4% | -43.4% | 29% | 29% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.4% | 29% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -48.8% | 29% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -53.7% | 29% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -58.3% | 29% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $400 | $400 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $240 | $240 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $230 | $230 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Heat | Nov 17 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Rangers vs. Red Wings | Nov 07 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Capitals vs. Penguins | Nov 07 | $33 | +$32 | +96% |
| Lightning vs. Capitals | Oct 14 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Sep 23 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Braves vs. Nationals | Sep 23 | $6 | +$4 | +72% |
| Nationals vs. Marlins | Sep 15 | $2 | +$2 | +89% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 13 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 08 | $4 | +$3 | +64% |
| Will Nacho Barbero win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Braves vs. Reds | Jul 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Everton wins the Premier League? | Feb 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Stars vs. Kings | Feb 10 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Timberwolves | Feb 07 | $103 | +$112 | +108% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $110 | +$101 | +92% |
| Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | Feb 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks | Nov 26 | $44 | −$44 | -100% |