Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0174…256f other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 25% −$26
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$8
culture 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage134d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $571 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $744 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $671 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $646 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $376 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $561 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $471 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $934 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $283 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 11h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 14h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 17h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 18h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 26h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 28h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 39h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 45h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.93 · official $10.93 (match) · 1406 history records