Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0177…01d6 other 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$42 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%13W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$358
7 days+$256
14 days+$256
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$120
sports 25% +$241
world 14% −$13
weather 4% −$16
politics 4% −$55
crypto 3% −$60
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 20% +10.4%
≤30d 58 -13.1% -21.3% 19% 17% -5.8%
≤90d 76 -27.7% -34.6% 17% 14% -18.6%
all 76 -27.7% -34.6% 17% 14% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 14% -18.6%
10% -40.8% 14% -26.4%
15% -46.5% 13% -33.5%
20% -51.8% 11% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$9 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses13 / 63
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions44
Markets (closed)76 / 120
History coverage59d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ 19¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 63¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? No 66¢ 58¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$101 +165%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$334 +3345%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +596%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +434%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -44%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $100 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $97 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 33¢ $10 1h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $10 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $10 2h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $10 2h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $51 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 11h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 11h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 1¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.26 · official $784.27 (match) · 230 history records