Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x017b…1ef4 sports 331 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,462 (+9%) realized +$2,472 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%230W / 100L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$38
14 days+$135
30 days+$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$462
tech 24% +$1,189
other 21% −$250
politics 18% +$735
world 4% +$109
crypto 3% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 80% 60% +1.2%
≤30d 131 +43.5% +29.8% 73% 46% -4.8%
≤90d 271 +38.8% +25.6% 73% 44% -2.4%
all 330 +37.7% +24.6% 70% 41% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.6% 41% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here +12.7% 31% -11.9%
15% +1.8% 23% -20.4%
20% -8.2% 19% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,472
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses230 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions4
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026? No 21¢ 93¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+348%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$12 (-95%)
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $6 +$4 +54%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $47 +$47 +99%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $248 +$8 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $68 −$16 -24%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$20 -82%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $3 +$7 +285%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$76 +1718%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $16 +$4 +26%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 +$12 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 +$2 +137%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$9 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$7 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 +$31 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $127 +$27 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $188 +$14 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $75 +$4 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $46 +$26 +56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$3 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $58 +$7 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$88 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$7 +33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$72 -35%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$7 +429%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $31 $0 -2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $52 −$23 -45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$5 +20%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 +$25 +80%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $69 +$34 +49%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 11 $263 +$16 +6%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$8 +300%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $96 −$2 -2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -75%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $54 −$12 -22%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $93 −$48 -52%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 10 $33 −$31 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $33 +$9 +28%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $203 −$64 -31%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $412 +$11 +3%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $6 +$6 +108%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $29 +$15 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 74¢ $22 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $7 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 74¢ $7 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $8 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $71 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 4¢ $13 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $12 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $12 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $6 3h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 30¢ $3 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 35¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 45¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 47¢ $1 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 47¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 47¢ $5 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 5¢ $2 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 5¢ $1 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 4¢ $0 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 3¢ $0 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 4¢ $2 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 4¢ $0 24h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 4¢ $0 24h
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 99¢ $198 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 90¢ $19 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 84¢ $13 5d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $3 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 2¢ $0 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 3¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.71 · official $3.52 (match) · 3500 history records