Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x017b…301d other 414 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,119 (-1%) realized −$1,141 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate52%206W / 192L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$22
14 days+$17
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,006
sports 0% −$159
finance 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$9
culture 0% +$87
world 0% −$9
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 75% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 24% -7.1%
≤90d 96 -10.3% -18.8% 74% 12% -10.2%
all 398 -17.6% -25.5% 52% 20% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 20% -10.2%
10% -32.6% 17% -18.8%
15% -39.1% 14% -26.6%
20% -45.1% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$57 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized−$1,141
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses206 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)398 / 414
History coverage283d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $442 $463 +$22 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $377 +$14 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $244 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $246 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $249 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $216 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$5 +225%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $246 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $262 +$18 +7%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $15 +$34 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $38 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $80 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $214 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $226 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $236 −$10 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $235 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $447 +$15 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $205 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $206 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $98 +$2 +2%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 25 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $86 +$14 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $301 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 72¢ $1 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 11¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $164 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $149 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $136 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 16¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $237 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 18¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 26¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.34 · official $679.33 (match) · 2184 history records