Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x017d…3892 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized −$28 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$21
sports 28% −$40
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -21.7% -29.2% 48% 48% -19.1%
≤30d 29 -21.7% -29.2% 48% 48% -19.1%
≤90d 29 -21.7% -29.2% 48% 48% -19.1%
all 29 -21.7% -29.2% 48% 48% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 48% -19.1%
10% -36.0% 48% -26.9%
15% -42.1% 38% -33.9%
20% -47.8% 21% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 33h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 40h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 40h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.29 · official $65.29 (match) · 46 history records