Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

01 0x0182…9d3e crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$155 (-4%) realized +$24 · open −$179

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip

Net edge-66%after slip

Net WR15%break-even

Win rate15%4W / 22L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$114per market

Trades / day59.0pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +15%

net ROI/market (all)-59.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-55.5%	-59.8%	15%	15%	-27.0%
≤30d	26	-55.5%	-59.8%	15%	15%	-27.0%
≤90d	26	-55.5%	-59.8%	15%	15%	-27.0%
all	26	-55.5%	-59.8%	15%	15%	-27.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover59.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-59.8%	15%	-27.0%
10% ← realistic here	-63.6%	8%	-34.0%
15%	-67.1%	4%	-40.4%
20%	-70.4%	4%	-46.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -56% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -41% → late -71% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$37 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$179

Win rate (resolved)15%

Wins / losses4 / 22

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions5

Markets (closed)26 / 31

History coverage1d

Avg bet$114

Trades / day59.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	52¢	41¢	$160	$126	−$34 (-21%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$100	$4	−$96 (-96%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-96%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-99%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$204	−$157	-77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 24	$11	−$10	-94%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 24	$303	−$72	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 24	$12	−$11	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 24	$52	−$50	-95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$303	−$35	-12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$10	−$3	-27%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$51	−$8	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 24	$27	−$15	-55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$16	-63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 24	$52	−$43	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 24	$94	−$40	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 24	$32	−$20	-63%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 24	$201	+$59	+29%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 24	$598	+$132	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 24	$103	+$18	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 24	$105	+$18	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 24	$63	−$30	-48%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 24	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 24	$20	−$1	-6%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 24	$41	−$40	-97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$284	−$116	-41%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$506	−$21	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 23	$8	−$7	-96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$162	3m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$47	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$11	27m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	29m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	52¢	$231	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$12	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$52	45m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$204	49m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	58¢	$268	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	3¢	$8	1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	9¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Down	18¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	67¢	$303	2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	4¢	$10	2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	10¢	$51	2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$303	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	28¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$60	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$11	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.15 · official $173.92 · 61 history records