Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0187…0200 weather 368 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%175W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$28
14 days+$43
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$28
weather 35% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.5% +2.7% 42% 36% +6.5%
≤30d 145 +10.8% +0.2% 38% 35% +1.6%
≤90d 356 -0.6% -10.1% 49% 25% -10.6%
all 356 -0.6% -10.1% 49% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 25% -10.6%
10% -18.7% 22% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 22% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses175 / 181
Open positions12
Markets (closed)356 / 368
History coverage88d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +170%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +203%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$10 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$7 +112%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$8 +488%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$8 +400%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.00 · official $33.00 (match) · 859 history records