Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0189…5861 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,121 (-31%) realized −$1,125 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$295
sports 48% −$849
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -43.5%
≤30d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -43.5%
≤90d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -43.5%
all 6 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 33% -43.5%
10% -33.8% 33% -48.9%
15% -40.2% 33% -53.8%
20% -46.1% 17% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$425 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 62¢ $487 $491 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 −$15 -8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $770 −$755 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $796 −$780 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,110 +$460 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $493 21m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 28¢ $189 22m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $204 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $152 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $154 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $770 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $796 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,570 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,110 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.08 · official $491.08 (match) · 10 history records