Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x018a…5e65 sports 376 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$874 (-8%) realized −$873 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate75%279W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$151
14 days−$123
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$847
other 24% −$156
culture 0% +$3
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 57% -17.9%
≤30d 187 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 61% -16.5%
≤90d 253 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 59% -16.8%
all 374 -3.9% -13.0% 75% 57% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 57% -17.8%
10% -21.3% 32% -25.6%
15% -28.9% 17% -32.8%
20% -35.9% 7% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$31 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$873
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses279 / 95
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 376
History coverage281d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 72¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +74%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$12 +49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 +$16 +63%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$10 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $26 +$17 +68%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +39%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $25 +$8 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 51m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $25 4h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 46¢ $26 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $31 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $25 7h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $30 7h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $25 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $31 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 83¢ $25 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $25 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $23 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $31 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $25 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ $25 29h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $32 29h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $24 32h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $25 37h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $25 37h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $25 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $25 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.66 · official $48.66 (match) · 773 history records