Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x018b…5372 sports 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,573 (-1%) realized −$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%75W / 33L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,212per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$886est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$472
7 days−$2,200
14 days−$8,304
30 days−$6,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,221
other 9% −$2,890
world 0% +$56
crypto 0% +$80
finance 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 37% -17.9%
≤30d 61 -8.1% -16.9% 64% 34% -15.8%
≤90d 108 +4.3% -5.6% 69% 45% -10.6%
all 108 +4.3% -5.6% 69% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 45% -10.6%
10% -14.6% 31% -19.1%
15% -22.9% 20% -26.9%
20% -30.4% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$459 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses75 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$886
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,212
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $2,003 +$100 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $182 +$91 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $1,801 +$34 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $1,003 +$110 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $182 −$180 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $2,082 −$1 -0%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $2,005 +$147 +7%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $1,403 +$101 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,907 +$91 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,253 +$43 +3%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide Jun 20 $2,004 +$122 +6%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $101 +$28 +28%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $101 +$61 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,635 −$1,624 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $3,311 −$1,668 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $803 +$105 +13%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1,006 +$228 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $801 +$48 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $202 −$116 -57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1,203 −$1,200 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $30 −$18 -62%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,011 +$560 +55%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $102 −$77 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1,102 +$5 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $807 +$336 +42%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $505 +$264 +52%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $608 −$598 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $51 −$8 -15%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $83 −$82 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1,010 +$98 +10%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $6,045 −$5,000 -83%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $804 +$139 +17%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $5,009 +$255 +5%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $808 +$244 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $818 −$785 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $5,003 +$47 +1%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $903 +$98 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $5,827 +$173 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $3,303 +$98 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $102 +$147 +145%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $1,451 −$22 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $4,494 −$26 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $4,004 +$125 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $174 +$62 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $2,103 36m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 57m
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 95¢ $2,003 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh SELL Vilius Gaubas 100¢ $19 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $1,113 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh SELL Vilius Gaubas 100¢ $1,816 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 98¢ $1,801 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jan Choinski 90¢ $1,003 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Francesco Maestrelli 67¢ $182 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can SELL Alejandro Moro Canas 100¢ $2,081 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 96¢ $2,082 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 16h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $2,152 28h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 92¢ $2,005 28h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $1,504 29h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 93¢ $1,403 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,998 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,802 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $105 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,289 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 7¢ $7 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 93¢ $1,203 2d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $2,125 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 49¢ $51 2d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 94¢ $2,004 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Tommy Paul 99¢ $129 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 77¢ $101 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $162 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 61¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records