Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x018c…09c6 crypto 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+3%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%211W / 92L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$201
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$139
other 2% −$14
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +9.9% -0.6% 88% 53% -3.0%
≤30d 61 +2.9% -6.9% 80% 48% -3.4%
≤90d 303 -3.9% -13.0% 70% 32% -6.7%
all 303 -3.9% -13.0% 70% 32% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 32% -6.7%
10% -21.3% 16% -15.6%
15% -28.9% 8% -23.7%
20% -35.9% 4% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses211 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)303 / 303
History coverage60d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 303 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $82 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $122 +$34 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $122 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $122 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $143 −$100 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $41 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $91 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $156 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $122 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $90 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $93 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $90 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $129 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $121 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records