Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x018c…bbea
economics · 113 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$172 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$160 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$767
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses84 / 14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)98 / 113
History coverage117d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 15 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $213 $217 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $181 $184 +$3 (+2%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $140 $143 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 98¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 99¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 11 $113 +$1 +1%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $225 +$121 +54%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra May 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap May 02 $14 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $27 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April? May 02 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? May 02 $49 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 02 $82 +$1 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $33 +$1 +4%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 48% +$39
other 30% +$8
world 10% +$2
politics 8% +$121
finance 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $4 4h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $4 6h
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 99¢ $1 8h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 99¢ $1 8h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $4 9h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 98¢ $4 18h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $1 22h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $1 38h
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $4 40h
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $7 41h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 42h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 43h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 43h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 43h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 45h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 45h
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 24 +0.6% -9.0% 92% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 90 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 2% -2.0%
all 98 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 2% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -2.6%
10% -17.8% 2% -11.9%
15% -25.7% 1% -20.5%
20% -33.0% 1% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.15 · official $767.15 (match) · 2057 history records