Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x018d…8d97 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-18%) realized −$246 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$10
world 30% +$15
sports 19% −$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 6 -30.7% -37.3% 50% 17% -19.0%
≤90d 9 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 11% -28.5%
all 9 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 11% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 11% -28.5%
10% -53.5% 0% -35.4%
15% -58.0% 0% -41.6%
20% -62.1% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$55 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage85d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $232 $232 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 17 $228 +$6 +3%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $485 +$10 +2%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $94 +$10 +11%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $27 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Mar 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $233 1h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $234 18h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $228 21h
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $84 21h
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $411 21h
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $485 22d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $42 24d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $41 24d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $53 24d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $52 24d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY Yes $48 24d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY Yes $47 24d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $26 26d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $25 26d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $35 26d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $35 26d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $35 26d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $35 26d
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Riyadh Saudi Club $23 49d
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Riyadh Saudi Club $22 49d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 49d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 49d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 49d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 49d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Level UP 38¢ $57 84d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Level UP 38¢ $38 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.74 · official $231.87 (match) · 26 history records