Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x018f…c834 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$54 (-3%) realized +$64 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 230d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$91
crypto 20% −$303
economics 20% +$158
politics 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 50% +10.9%
≤30d 2 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 50% +10.9%
≤90d 3 +11.7% +1.0% 67% 67% +19.0%
all 5 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 40% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 40% -4.8%
10% -29.0% 40% -14.0%
15% -35.9% 40% -22.3%
20% -42.2% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$80 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage230d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $260 $236 −$24 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $160 $184 +$24 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 8¢ $150 $32 −$118 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $302 +$144 +48%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $386 +$158 +41%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 08 $185 −$185 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 08 $200 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.09 · official $652.09 (match) · 86 history records