Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x0191…ebdb
world · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$644 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$678 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized+$678
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage115d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 5 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $57 $24 −$34 (-59%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 20 $106 −$45 -42%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Mar 20 $98 −$58 -59%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Mar 09 $198 −$126 -64%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $100 −$19 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $200 −$5 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1,144 +$144 +13%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $124 +$1,003 +810%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $66 −$23 -35%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $56 −$6 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 91% +$723
other 7% −$79
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? BUY Yes 3¢ $57 48d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 90d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $56 90d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $66 96d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $66 96d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $6 101d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 101d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $56 101d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $81 103d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $81 103d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $195 103d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 104d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? SELL Yes 10¢ $53 104d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 104d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 104d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 105d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $606 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $400 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 31¢ $88 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $76 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $370 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 25¢ $481 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $91 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -67.1% -70.2% 0% 0% -66.1%
all 12 +24.2% +12.4% 17% 17% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 17% +17.4%
10% +1.6% 8% +6.2%
15% -8.2% 8% -4.1%
20% -17.2% 8% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.84 · official $66.86 (match) · 52 history records