Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0192…a179 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$3
world 27% $0
sports 6% $0
weather 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -8.7%
≤90d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -8.7%
all 20 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -10.1%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage469d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 14 $5 $0 -2%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $7 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 12 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $33 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $33 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $17 29d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $3 342d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $6 361d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $6 396d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 397d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 397d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 399d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po SELL Yes 87¢ $3 402d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po BUY Yes 86¢ $4 402d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $2 403d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 417d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 417d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? BUY No 91¢ $5 432d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? SELL No 99¢ $5 432d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? BUY No 99¢ $5 433d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 433d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $5 434d
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? SELL No 87¢ $5 434d
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? BUY No 88¢ $5 435d
Circle IPO in 2025? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 435d
Circle IPO in 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 435d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.64 (match) · 49 history records