Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0193…bad1 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,310 (+21%) realized +$5,294 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$314est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$267
7 days+$418
14 days+$204
30 days−$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,633
other 9% +$1,490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 45% -2.1%
≤30d 39 -7.5% -16.3% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 75 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 40% +11.1%
all 89 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 40% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 40% +9.5%
10% -21.3% 40% -1.0%
15% -28.9% 39% -10.6%
20% -35.9% 31% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$399 vs −$174 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,300
Realized+$5,294
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$314
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage142d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,283 $1,300 +$16 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$121 +119%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $354 −$350 -99%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $57 −$57 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $407 +$645 +158%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $456 +$666 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $110 +$55 +50%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $209 −$205 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $331 −$326 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,141 −$1,125 -99%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $162 +$305 +188%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $302 +$109 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $231 −$227 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $108 +$298 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $608 +$524 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $356 +$170 +48%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $313 −$310 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $78 +$135 +172%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs ex-Zero Tenacity (+1.5) May 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) May 28 $15 +$17 +113%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $102 +$224 +219%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $265 +$358 +135%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omega Esports vs Twisted Minds PH (BO5) - MP May 25 $224 −$220 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $306 −$300 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $41 +$32 +79%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1,321 +$1,505 +114%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 23 $202 −$57 -28%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? May 23 $116 −$115 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? May 22 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 22 $182 −$179 -98%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) May 22 $365 −$13 -4%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 22 $1,837 −$1,825 -99%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship G May 21 $46 −$46 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 21 $125 −$123 -98%
Valorant: FOKUS vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 20 $31 +$51 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $2,633 +$1,044 +40%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $1,031 +$1,175 +114%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 18 $126 −$124 -98%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) May 18 $90 −$89 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner May 18 $152 +$126 +83%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $589 +$431 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,307 1h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 49¢ $38 25h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY InterActive Philippines 45¢ $102 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $354 35h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $8 3d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $21 3d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 29¢ $17 4d
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta BUY Gerald 29¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 47¢ $57 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $407 4d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 41¢ $58 5d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 41¢ $151 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $66 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,141 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $425 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $31 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $265 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $110 5d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 34¢ $81 5d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 34¢ $81 5d
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) BUY ONIC 47¢ $75 6d
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) BUY ONIC 47¢ $79 6d
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) BUY ONIC 47¢ $77 6d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 16¢ $49 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $34 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $108 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $608 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $356 7d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $157 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,299.51 · official $1,299.51 (match) · 181 history records