Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0193…9706 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$62 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$108
sports 6% −$85
other 2% −$40
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.6% -28.1% 50% 50% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -20.6% -28.1% 50% 50% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 56% -9.1%
all 36 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 25% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 25% -8.4%
10% -30.9% 25% -17.1%
15% -37.6% 19% -25.1%
20% -43.7% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage104d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$53 +51%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$69 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$21 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 21 $40 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 11 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 10 $70 +$6 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 10 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 10 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 10 $43 −$22 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 10 $61 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 09 $86 +$55 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 09 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 09 $123 −$35 -28%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 09 $111 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 09 $198 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 09 $95 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 09 $39 +$72 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 09 $161 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $93 −$3 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 09 $94 −$10 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 09 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 09 $58 +$20 +35%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 08 $15 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $102 23m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $60 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $65 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 22¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $21 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 91d
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 91d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 91d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $10 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $12 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.23 · official $34.99 (match) · 109 history records