Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0195…1e21 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-4%) realized −$189 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$65
other 4% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +55.7% +40.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
≤30d 28 +55.7% +40.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 28 +55.7% +40.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
all 28 +55.7% +40.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.9% 39% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here +27.4% 39% -22.0%
15% +15.1% 39% -29.6%
20% +3.8% 32% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +140% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$88 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $20 $71 +$51 (+254%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 +$154 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$66 +324%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $253 +$150 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$162 +1575%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$45 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$80 -79%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$133 -66%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $317 +$144 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $233 +$184 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $322 −$9 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$110 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$94 +184%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $252 +$100 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$66 -33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $138 −$136 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $298 −$294 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $357 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $403 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 74¢ $39 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $253 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $20 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $6 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $21 6h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $69 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $202 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $461 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $417 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $317 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.44 · official $400.44 (match) · 52 history records