Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
01 0x0196…0a0b world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
politics 17% $0
other 10% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 35% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 35% 5% -9.1%
all 51 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage320d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 14 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 10 $52 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 07 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $31 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $38 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $23 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records