Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x0196…d9f9 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,937 (-25%) realized −$2,927 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$500
14 days−$833
30 days−$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$2,756
sports 25% +$350
world 8% −$527
crypto 6% −$120
politics 2% +$105
economics 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 50% -29.9%
≤30d 7 -28.0% -34.8% 43% 43% -39.1%
≤90d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 50% 50% -32.4%
all 54 -44.9% -50.1% 30% 28% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 28% -35.2%
10% -54.9% 22% -41.4%
15% -59.3% 20% -47.1%
20% -63.3% 17% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$142 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized−$2,927
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage260d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $315 −$310 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $300 +$200 +67%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $204 +$196 +96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $661 −$657 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $703 +$101 +14%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $41 −$30 -73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $338 −$334 -99%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Apr 15 $200 +$139 +70%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $239 −$239 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $300 +$99 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $36 −$36 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $85 +$11 +13%
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 1) Jan 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Jan 23 $160 −$43 -27%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jan 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17? Jan 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? Jan 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Jan 08 $200 −$200 -100%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $100 +$14 +14%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,281 +$493 +38%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 23 $240 +$106 +44%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 21 $358 −$358 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) be signed Nov 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 14 $140 +$260 +186%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $98 +$77 +78%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Real Betis vs. Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Nov 02 $60 +$36 +60%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $60 +$35 +59%
Spread: Real Betis (-1.5) Nov 02 $260 +$428 +165%
Barcelona vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $60 −$60 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 02 $45 −$17 -38%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-02? Nov 01 $118 −$9 -7%
Spread: Barcelona (-2.5) Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? Nov 01 $85 −$85 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Valencia: O/U 3.5 Nov 01 $320 +$252 +79%
Levante UD vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5 Nov 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Nov 01 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Nov 01 $82 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $610 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 BUY 10¢ $151 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $315 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $248 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $64 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $804 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $38 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $8 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $4 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $8 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $30 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $183 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $4 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $15 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $131 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $69 2d
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $703 2d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $338 11d
Spurs vs. Hornets BUY Spurs 61¢ $239 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.29 · official $790.29 (match) · 112 history records