Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x019a…809b crypto 284 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+0%) realized −$685 · open +$828
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%279W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$589per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$966
tech 1% +$2
politics 1% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 160 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 281 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$932) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$1,047
Realized−$685
Unrealized+$828
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses279 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)281 / 284
History coverage183d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 0¢ 100¢ $0 $628 +$628 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $219 $219 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 22? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $199 +$199 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 22? Jun 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 22? Jun 22 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $686 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 21? Jun 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 21? Jun 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 21? Jun 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $658 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 20? Jun 20 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 20? Jun 20 $865 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $944 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $932 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $634 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $407 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 14? Jun 15 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,040 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 13? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 13? Jun 14 $347 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13? Jun 13 $930 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 12? Jun 13 $629 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,036 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,034 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,032 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,031 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 June 1-7? Jun 08 $543 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 08 $205 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? Jun 08 $282 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,028 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,027 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $855 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 3? Jun 04 $747 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? Jun 03 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 3? Jun 03 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 2? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 2? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 2? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 1h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $202 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $219 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 12h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $263 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $686 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $74 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $106 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $45 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $95 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $115 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $75 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 43h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $765 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $178 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $928 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.64 · official $1,046.64 (match) · 644 history records