Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x019c…e8d2 weather 541 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,530 (-16%) realized −$4,418 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%177W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$1,739
other 19% +$478
finance 5% −$356
tech 3% −$23
crypto 2% −$29
sports 2% +$80
politics 2% +$54
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -6.4% -15.3% 13% 2% -17.9%
≤30d 416 -6.4% -15.3% 26% 16% -17.8%
≤90d 538 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 20% -14.1%
all 538 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 20% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 20% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 18% -22.3%
15% -29.7% 17% -29.8%
20% -36.5% 15% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$4,418
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses177 / 361
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)538 / 541
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 16¢ 40¢ $58 $143 +$84 (+145%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 65¢ 22¢ $156 $52 −$104 (-67%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 37¢ 8¢ $105 $21 −$84 (-80%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $60 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $355 −$37 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $24 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $87 −$13 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $61 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$7 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $134 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $414 −$143 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$7 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 58¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 59¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 59¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $60 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 41¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.51 · official $210.24 · 3500 history records