Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x01a1…d040 crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$33 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$29
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.9% -4.2% 88% 75% -8.0%
≤30d 56 -5.2% -14.2% 71% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 82 -7.4% -16.2% 70% 50% -16.4%
all 82 -7.4% -16.2% 70% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -16.4%
10% -24.2% 35% -24.4%
15% -31.5% 21% -31.7%
20% -38.2% 12% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage39d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 26 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 26 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.00 · official $22.00 (match) · 180 history records