trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +12.5% | +1.8% | 100% | 100% | +1.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 33% | 17% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 33% | 17% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 59% | 14% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 14% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 5% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 54¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 26 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 25 | $38 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 24 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 31 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| 2025 March hottest on record? | Mar 28 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $2 | −$2 | -75% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 21 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 18 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $12 | +$2 | +17% |
| Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 13 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| My Mate Nate vs. Dawood Savage | Mar 04 | $9 | +$3 | +32% |