Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01a4…d2b5 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,717 (-538%) realized −$1,724 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$92
other 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +101.8% +82.6% 8% 8% -62.8%
≤30d 12 +101.8% +82.6% 8% 8% -62.8%
≤90d 12 +101.8% +82.6% 8% 8% -62.8%
all 28 +7.2% -3.0% 11% 4% -86.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 4% -86.5%
10% -12.3% 4% -87.8%
15% -20.7% 4% -89.0%
20% -28.5% 4% -90.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -180% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -163% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$61 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$1,724
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 15
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 46¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 82¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $128 −$255 -200%
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $0 $0 -193%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $190 −$381 -200%
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$90 -189%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $93 −$188 -203%
Will Preston North End FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$15 -196%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $0 −$12 -3400%
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-02-06? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -345%
Will St Mirren FC win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $47 −$96 -201%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $0 −$21 -13717%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-02-14? Jun 17 $126 −$252 -200%
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $31 −$62 -200%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $0 +$11 +13908%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -721%
Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Lanús end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$43 -197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Senators vs. Oilers Jun 17 $23 −$1 -5%
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$17 -60%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Stars vs. Flames Mar 04 $13 $0 -1%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $1 $0 +2%
Everton FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 04 $1 $0 +9%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 04 $74 −$11 -15%
Will Everton FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Mar 03 $4 $0 -6%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5h
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 38¢ $1 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $16 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $5 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $0 104d
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $1 104d
Stars vs. Flames SELL Stars 91¢ $9 105d
Stars vs. Flames BUY Stars 93¢ $9 105d
Stars vs. Flames SELL Flames 44¢ $4 105d
Stars vs. Flames BUY Flames 43¢ $4 105d
Senators vs. Oilers SELL Oilers 50¢ $10 105d
Senators vs. Oilers SELL Oilers 50¢ $2 105d
Senators vs. Oilers SELL Oilers 50¢ $1 105d
Senators vs. Oilers SELL Oilers 50¢ $4 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.24 · official $97.24 (match) · 3500 history records