Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01a5…3793
sports · 5 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$16 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 +$8 +55%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 +$12 +76%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$15
other 19% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 58m
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 56¢ $15 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $15 6d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 60¢ $15 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤30d 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤90d 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -30.5%
all 4 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 50% -30.5%
10% -32.3% 50% -37.1%
15% -38.9% 50% -43.2%
20% -44.9% 50% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $14.22 (match) · 7 history records