Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x01ad…d823 sports 360 markets active 1d ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$813 (-10%) realized −$859 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%102W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$291
14 days−$271
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$634
other 19% +$97
culture 3% +$63
world 3% −$160
tech 3% −$183
politics 2% −$23
crypto 1% +$19
weather 0% −$20
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +7.1% -3.1% 21% 21% -44.8%
≤30d 89 +15.2% +4.2% 26% 26% -19.5%
≤90d 153 +21.2% +9.7% 34% 34% -9.2%
all 310 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 33% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 33% -20.8%
10% -19.9% 31% -28.4%
15% -27.7% 30% -35.3%
20% -34.7% 28% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized−$859
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses102 / 208
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions50
Markets (closed)310 / 360
History coverage586d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 61¢ $35 $69 +$34 (+97%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+69%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+292%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 42¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 32¢ 29¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 22¢ 35¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $15 −$6 -41%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $7 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 56¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 42¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.20 · official $425.03 (match) · 911 history records