Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
01 0x01ae…55f8 sports 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,181 (+14%) realized +$3,139 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%175W / 108L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days+$769
14 days+$955
30 days+$1,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,346
other 8% +$757
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$58
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +8.3% -2.0% 59% 56% +2.8%
≤30d 210 +14.0% +3.1% 57% 55% -0.9%
≤90d 283 +20.3% +8.9% 62% 60% +3.1%
all 283 +20.3% +8.9% 62% 60% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 60% +3.1%
10% -1.6% 56% -6.8%
15% -11.1% 50% -15.8%
20% -19.8% 40% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$64 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized+$3,139
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses175 / 108
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions6
Markets (closed)283 / 289
History coverage55d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 48¢ 48¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 57¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $71 +$5 +8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $81 +$85 +105%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $81 +$67 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 +$82 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $81 +$1 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $61 +$63 +104%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$64 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $81 +$55 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $202 +$67 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 −$18 -9%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $81 +$52 +65%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $71 +$29 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $151 +$49 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$243 +238%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$110 +120%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $92 +$176 +192%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $76 +$74 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 +$53 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $71 +$37 +52%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$63 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $97 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 72¢ $101 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $81 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $81 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $81 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 46¢ $71 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan $5 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 40¢ $102 14h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $81 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 26h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 54¢ $81 31h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 48¢ $81 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $81 37h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 48¢ $83 38h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 40h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 40h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $81 41h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $81 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 48¢ $61 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.61 · official $583.50 (match) · 544 history records