Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x01b1…def4 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+4%) realized +$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$229
14 days+$232
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$3
other 34% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 5% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.3% +9.7% 50% 25% +2.9%
≤30d 10 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 10% -5.0%
≤90d 10 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 10% -5.0%
all 10 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 10% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 10% -5.0%
10% -11.2% 10% -14.1%
15% -19.8% 10% -22.4%
20% -27.6% 10% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$1 · ×71.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×143.32 per $1 lost it wins $143.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $484 $484 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $451 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $270 +$230 +85%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $482 −$1 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $431 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $510 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $517 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $470 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $471 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $451 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $106 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $100 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $487 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $487 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $533 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $534 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $431 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $449 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $510 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $517 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.76 · official $483.76 (match) · 33 history records