Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

01 0x01b6…9fc8 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,326 (-14%) realized −$1,537 · open +$211

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,182per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$76est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)-14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+23.0%	+11.3%	100%	100%	+11.2%
≤30d	3	+23.0%	+11.3%	100%	100%	+11.2%
≤90d	7	-5.0%	-14.0%	71%	71%	-16.9%
all	7	-5.0%	-14.0%	71%	71%	-16.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.0%	71%	-16.9%
10%	-22.3%	29%	-24.8%
15%	-29.8%	0%	-32.1%
20%	-36.7%	0%	-38.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$230 vs −$913 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$961

Realized−$1,537

Unrealized+$211

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$76

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage50d

Avg bet$1,182

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	78¢	99¢	$750	$961	+$211 (+28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$969	+$191	+20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$732	+$236	+32%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$626	+$106	+17%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	May 09	$1,516	−$1,106	-73%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	May 09	$1,704	−$720	-42%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner	May 09	$1,672	+$416	+25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner	May 09	$1,485	+$201	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	65¢	$51	27m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	62¢	$152	30m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	85¢	$552	32m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	100¢	$0	57m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	100¢	$1,160	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	83¢	$969	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	100¢	$968	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	75¢	$732	2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$733	2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	85¢	$626	3h
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY Movistar KOI	84¢	$201	49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY Movistar KOI	77¢	$912	49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	SELL Karmine Corp	44¢	$984	49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	28¢	$135	49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY Karmine Corp	74¢	$1,704	49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	80¢	$402	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner	SELL G2 Esports	100¢	$2,088	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	80¢	$1,672	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner	SELL G2 Esports	100¢	$1,687	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	90¢	$80	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	90¢	$1,204	49d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	76¢	$201	49d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.99 · official $960.99 (match) · 23 history records